Industry Trend Analysis - Transport To Dominate Infrastructure Mix - MAR 2018

BMI View: Kyrgyzstan is set for a run of moderate construction sector growth in the coming years, with the transport and power sectors expected to outperform. Due to ongoing concerns with regard to corruption and regulatory opacity, we expect that many international companies will continue to stay away, leaving Kyrgyzstan to rely on multilateral development and bilateral finance to get infrastructure projects off the ground.

We expect moderate construction sector growth in Kyrgyzstan over the next five years, driven primarily by pent-up structural demand paired with the availability of bilateral (especially Chinese) and multilateral development funding. Our forecast projects average annualised growth of 4.9% over the following five years up to 2027, which places the country ahead of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) average but behind higher growth markets in Central Asia like Kazakhstan (7%).

Multi-Laterals With Important Funding Role

Foreign Capital To Remain Important
Kyrgyzstan: Budget Balance, % Of GDP

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