Industry Trend Analysis - Al Sisi Re-Election Positive For Infrastructure Growth - MAR 2018
BMI View: The expected re-election of sitting President Al Sisi will be broadly positive for Egypt's infrastructure sector, as reform progress draws private capital and the political emphasis on megaprojects drives growth.
Incumbent President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi will secure a second term in Egypt's March presidential elections, ensuring broad policy continuity and continued progress in the country's ongoing reform drive, both of which bode well for the expansion of private financing in the country's infrastructure mix. Given Sisi's commitment to big-ticket infrastructure projects as a means of shoring up his party's political popularity and addressing significant pent-up structural demand, we expect his re-election to cement Egypt's status as one of the best performing growth markets in the MENA region.
We expect incumbent President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to secure a second term in the upcoming Egyptian elections on March 26-28. The only other candidate running is Mousa Mostafa Mousa - the little-known head of Egypt's small, centrist Ghad party. Mousa is believed to be a supporter of el-Sisi, encouraged to run to create some sense of competition, after a number of other potential candidates were pressured to step down (see, 'El-Sisi Election Win Reform-Positive, But Not Without Risks,' February 7, 2018). We highlight a number of key implications stemming from Al Sisi's anticipated re-election:
|Al Sisi Reelection Positive For Growth|
|Egypt: Construction Industry Value, EGP & Real Growth, % y-o-y|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI|